istoria unei crize a creditului pe intelesul tuturor

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

My time will come: interest rate will raise and die...eventually

Few years ago I was taking a finance class, within a Risk management program in USA and I had one particular question for my teacher at that time: why do we still need interest rate? Since the moment of Bretton Woods when gold became a different "commodity" than money is it still wise to rely on something so conventional defined with such a "strict precision" as the value of one piece of paper?

My question raised interest in professor's mind and a fierce reaction especially  from my colleagues (most of them bankers in Eastern Europe at that time:). They jumped on me trying to explain everything that was told during their own studies back home: Money is a commodity and as a consequence it has a price. Therefore if you ask for money you have to pay for bla bla... Needless to say that even here the price is not the mathematical result of the demand and supply law. (those who don't think so, could give a try repeating the experiments of Dan Ariely that concluded sharp: price is mostly triggered by supply side).

In fact you don't pay the price of the commodity but the expectation of what this price would be. Based on that derivatives emerged hedging became a temptation and in the end as we all see, speculation won the battle. 

This question I had back in 2002, came back to my attention while reading another challenge raised by someone else here:

"What assumptions are we making that we do not know we're making?

And the root cause could be what? Allow me to posit that it is:

Double Entry Book Keeping."

and I would dare to bring another assumtion more: concept of interest rate or what it became out of it. Time will prove if the major change will start from basics or from ashes (VAR, and other nice maps as professor Kanheman says.

Interest rate doesn't matter, Long live porn industry!

Ce ne doare pe noi? Si ce ii doare pe ei?

La noi, mai nou, criza inseamna sa te duci spre exemplu la firma de leasing (aici am o experienta recenta si am sa revin si cu nume - dar nici bancile nu sunt straine de acest lucru) si sa vezi ca noile contracte includ acum comisioane si taxe explicit nominalizate pentru orice sau si mai rau o fraza prin care tu semnatarul contractului in calitate de utilizator consimti sa platesti la timp si fara sa comentezi orice taxe, comisioane si alte stimulente in bani le va solicita firma de leasing cand i se va parea ei oportun!

Suprema idiotie este ca baieteii si fetitele de la ghisee habar nu au ce scrie in contract si il descopera alaturi de client. Dar asta nu e nimic nou, si mai trist este sa auzi explicatile care motiveaza de ce este nevoie de taxe suplimentare: "stiti acolo sunt niste persoane care verifica si calculeaza si ..." stau si ma intreb de ce nu trecem doamne la filosofia de acordare a creditelor de la musulmani unde dobanda nu exista. Petru ce mai platim dobanzi mai mari decat cele la care finantatorii se finanteaza, daca costurile trebuiesc acoperite din comisioane si taxe suplimentare?

Ma gandesc ca problema de fond nu este in modelul de business (pentru ca asemenea contracte nenegociabile fluturate de respectivele institutii de credit sunt totusi semnate de unii) iar responsabilitatea ar trebui sa revina reglementatorului acestei piete (respectiv BNR). Dar amintita institutie acum mult prea ocupata cu a scoate din criza Romania si implic noul ei Executiv nu va da doi bani pe protectia consumatorului final.  Probabil judecata de valoare este simpla, ne intereseaza marile dezechilibre sa nu se intample si mai putin abuzurile, individuale, care oricum tot acolo vor duce, in timp, dupa cum modelul american a demonstrat-o!

Dar, peste ocean preocuparile legate de rata dobanzii sunt "umbrite" :) acum de revedicarile industriei porno (care a solicitat ajutor financiar Congresului pentru salvarea industriei). Industria, care produce, conform articolului postat aici, 13 miliarde de dolari anual se afla in impas din cauza crizei financiare globale.  Articolul nu mentioneaza cati angajati activeaza in aceasta industrie in SUA, si spune ca solicitarea de ajutor adresata Congresului se cifreaza la 5 miliarde de dolari. 

Nu vreau sa ma gandesc cum ar fi sunat si ce impact ar fi avut o astfel de cerere adresata executivului nostru. Nostim, nu?