ganduri de sfarsit de an

Craciunul lui 2008 mai mult ca niciodata a fost sub semnul unui colind: "Hristos de nu sa nastea Lumea iadului era" si mai mult ca niciodata m-am gandit cata nevoie avem de repetitivitatea unei astfel de stari si a unei astfel de intamplari. Zilnic de ni s-ar intampla si tot nu ar fi deajuns...

si tot in perdioada asta am aflat ca exista si formula fericirii,

H = S + C + V

Unde s reprezinta cumva predispozitia bilogica de a fi fericit, C reprezinta conditiile generale de zi cu zii (mi repede as spune aici constrangerile) iar V activitatile voluntare. 

Am fi cu totii mai fericiti acum ca o stim sau starea de sub semnul colindei ar putea face lumea mai buna?

Criza la romani - economia mitei vs salariul premierului

Poate ca politicienii alesi si numiti ai Romaniei contemporane ar trebui sa fie atenti la studiile facute de anumiti economisti pe marginea a ceea ce se numeste economia mitei. La fel aceeasi recomandare cred ca se aplica si in cazul unor directori de transnationale din romania(caz asupra caruia voi reveni ulterior).

Un prim caz: 

Situatia I: anuntul noului premier de reducere a salariului pentru presedintii de autoritati. De acord cu criza, si cu imagineaa populara de robin hood (sa luam de la cei avuti ai statului si sa dam la saraci) dar ceea ce memoria colectiva a romanilor tinde sa uite este ca Robin Hood vine doar din cand (in Romania cam odata la patru ani) si nu in fiecare luna odata cu chenzina saucu  pensia. Prin urmare, un presedinte de autoritate numit pe criterii mai mult sau mai putin etice, nu numai ca nu va avea nicio motivatie economica directa din ascensiunea in acel post dar va incerca in virtutea pirmidei trebuintelor (ajunsa si ea la un anumit nivel) sa si le satisfaca altfel. 

Ca sa reformulez as spune doar atat: cat de mult trebuie sa castige o persoana intr-o functie cu atirbutii de reglementare directa peste industrii cu caracter de oligopol, prin definitie, pentru a nu fi sensibil la stimulente economice indirecte. Care poate fi acel prag psihologic? Salariul premierului?...

Sitiatia II: anuntul presedintelui ca si directorii din acele autoritati trebuie luati in considerare. Cum bine spunea un prieten: profesionistii (fiind definiti aici ca persoane care traiesc de pe urma castigurilor provenite din exercitarea profesiei) vor fi inlocuiti de oportunisti (fiind aici definiti ca persoane care sesizeaza si exploateaza oportunitati atunci cand ceilalti, in virtutea unor constrangeri general impuse/asumate, nu o fac) . Intrebarea care se ridica acum ar fi una naturala: care este pragul salarial de la care un profesionist va fi incurajat sa devina oportunist? Salariul premierului?...

Criza la romani II

Devine interesant de urmarit de la zi la zi ce inseamna si cum se manifesta criza la romani.

Ieri unul dintre mall urile din nordul capitalei era pustiu. O adevarat placere sa faci cumparaturi de sarbatori, cu exceptia superplictisitilor si supertracasatilor vanzatori din magazine fara proprietar (e.g. adica lanturi mari de magazine, cu model de business bun, dar fara ochiul stapanului la locul faptei) . In urma cu numai o zi, in oricare dintre marile magazine din Viena te calcai in picioare pentru placerea de a oferi ceva, celor dragi, de Craciun.

Taximetristul care de regula ma duce la aeroport a facut un comentariu interesant: acum consumam ce mai consumam din rezerve, dar la anul va fi mai rau.  Un alt KPI de criza alaturi de cei mentionati mai demult, numarul clientilor de portofoliu pentru taximetristii de zone inaccesibile transportului public de calitate.

Criza la romani!

Mai nou, supermarketurile de electrocasnice care altadata pentru un cd cumparat  iti dadeau o punga de 1m/1m  nu mai dau pungi deloc sub consemnul: "stiti, e criza, oamenii sunt dati afara si Dvs mai vreti pungi?"

La magazinele fancy din Baneasa, unde se vand sticle colorate la pret de bijuterie pungile sunt un serviciu cu valoare adaugata maxima: "stiti, nu prea mai avem pungi, am ramas cu putine, dar daca ati cerut..."

Si cand in sfarsit am crezut ca inteleg ce citesc... :)

"Traducerea este intotdeauna si o tradare si, dupa cum observa un scriitor din perioada Ming, nu poate sa fie decat, in cel mai bun caz, reversul brocartului - toate firele sunt acolo, dar nu si culorile sau modelul."

"Cartea Ceaiului" - Okakura Kakuzo, pg 42, Ed. Nemira 2008

rostul tabloidelor in presa :)

"Confucius a zis: "Omul nu poate ascunde"- Probabil ne aratam asa de des adevarata fata in lucrurile marunte pe care le facem pentru ca avem atat de putina maretie de ascuns."

"Cartea Ceaiului" - Okakura Kakuzo, pg 30, Ed. Nemira 2008

Simon says: Nu ma mai enervez de azi inainte :)

M-am gandit mai mult daca sa pun sau nu postul asta pe blog, dar am realizat ca intr-adevar ne enervam din ce in ce mai des, din ce in ce mai mult, iar articolul publicat aici (De ce ne pierdem cu firea?) trece in revista cauzele. 

Cum ar spune o prietena, nu am face asta daca nu am avea un beneficiu ascuns in spatele unei atitudini, dar daca nu avem, si in loc sa intoarcem furia celor care ne-o provoaca cum ar spune altcineva, pur si simplu o savuram dimineata, la pranz si seara pana pur si simplu ne naruim!

Daca toate aceste enervari din cotidian nu sunt altceva decat ispite care sa iti arate limita pana la care poti fi superior conditiei asumate! Daca toate aceste enervari nu sunt decat prostii de care radem cu prietenii ulterior la un pahar sau ineptii care ne coloreaza ziua cu ceea ce ne dorim pana la urma! 

Daca toate astea si multe altele despre enervare sunt adevarate, de ce sa ne mai enervam?

Cu ce masura poti masura Dragostea?

Nu sunt un cinefil, si nici nu termin lecturile obligatorii atunci cand le incep (poate tocmai pentru a nu fi dezamagit de ecranizarile ulterioare :) ), dar un film bun e un film bun!

Recomand o poveste de dragoste - transpusa pe marele ecran, acum disponibila si la supermarket la un pret derizoriu - dar care are raspunsul la intrebarea cat de mult poti sa iubesti sau povesteste despre masura Dragostei atat de greu de inteles pentru multi dintre noi: 51 de ani...luni.... zile....

"Dragoste in vremea holerei"

nunti muzici si casete video...

Tudor Giurgiu a facut un documentar care va fi difuzat, astazi, joi 27 noiembrie, pe la orele 20.00, pe canalul HBO pentru a putea vedea cel mai recent film pe care l-a realizat: NUNTI, MUZICI SI CASETE VIDEO.

 Check also www.nuntimuzicisicasetevideo.ro

Financial turmoil for dummies :)

KPI's pentru criza globala

un articol publicat online aici trece in revista inr-un mod interesant indicatorii de performanta ai crizei la nivelul statelor unite.

In sens pozitiv se misca: bonusurile unor executivi cu pedigree corporatist, cosumul de junk food la orele de varf, pretul benzinei care a scazut la americani (doar), vanmzarile de plasme, si incasarile prostituatelor...

In sens negativ se misca, oare, restul?

capitalismul (in faliment) cu fata umana...

Ma uit de ceva minute la spectacolul cersitului la nivel inalt, practicat de executivii de la GM, Chrysler si Ford in fata un unui comitet (House Committe) si nu pot sa nu ma intreb care sunt virtutile capitalismului care au adus industria auto din Detroit in pozitia in care se afla?

despre pacatele ei aflam printre randuri ca au veit la aceasta audiere pe fondul reducerii costurilor in cadrul companiilor pe care le reprezinta. si totusi "excursia" fiecaruia a costat cel putin 20.000 $ din cauza private jet-urilor cu care fiecare dintre ei a venit. 

Cand lacomia nu mai are limite, bunul simt devine desuet, iar spectacolul naturii umane in deznadejde e departe de a impresiona atingand coarda sensibila a milei ci mai degraba sila.

In situatia de fata, pentru prima data nu am nicio intrebare, pentru ca audierea in sine ofera prea multe raspunsuri. 

despre viitor...

Iatã un lucru despre viitor

De fiecare datã când te uiti

la el se schimbã,

deoarece te uiti la el

Si asta schimbã totul.

Filmul Next

where are the money gone?

Axiom: The question where to put your money is others' answer where to get your money from.

Should it be that way? Not sure. I have listened today several presentations on private equity that ranked future sources for finacing business in the near future: Private Equity (PE), Banks and IPOs. 

No other way metioned at all.

Would you buy only these options?

creating synergies with fractals?

I have been attending, tonight, in Palma de Mallorca, a speech given on 7 habbits of higly effective people of Covey.

Out the fact I don’t like the way he packed his theories I fully agree with one thing you can’t preach something that you are not doing it. Of course you can but you get lost in extremes. But one thing regarding the synergies, wouldn’t be the fractal theory approach the way to do it in terms of how to potentiate the outcome of interdependence level?

cine are grija de inovatia ajunsa la cotele ei maxime?

sunt extrem de preocupat in acest zile de un subiect care va deveni fierbinte in curand si in mediu romanesc: inovatia, rolul ei contextul crizei actuale si mai ales cum poti sa inovezi pornind si orpindu-te doar de la modelul de business.

Am sa atasez si modul in care firma pentru care lucrez in prezent (Horváth & Partners) vede modelul de business.

Ceea ce mi se pare cu adevarat interesant este faptul ca intr-adevar pe o schema atat de simpla incat ai fi tentat sa spui: pai da stiam asta deja! poti analiza aproape orice companie.

Paradoxal mi se pare insa deopotriva modul in care firme inovative prin modul in care implementeaza noile tehnologii vezi google si situatia descrisa in articolul de aici ajung intr-o extrema la care nici nu te gandesti cand singurul lucru pe care ti-l propui este sa fi cel mai bun.

Va las pe Dvs sa trageti concluziile pe marginea intrebarii nepuse de data aceasta.

fumuri... si marketing

Ati observat ca toate restaurantele in Romania au creat locuri pentru nefumatori? Dar ati mai observat ca statistic vorbind au locurile de nefumatori acolo unde toata lumea ar vrea sa stea sau in drum spre locul de nefumator de la intrarea in restaurant obligatoriu trebuie sa strabati un nor de fum si locurile fumatorilor?

sa fie asta un nou mod de marketing al companiilor de tigarete?

Criza financiara si explicatiile unora...

Baietilor destepti din energie le se adauga acum cei din banci e parerea presedintelui Romaniei despre una dintre cauzele care stau la baza crizei financiare actuale . In curand acesti baieti destepti vor aparea peste tot. 

Stau si ma intreb ce se va intampla oare cand si politica va fi plina de baieti destepti? Sau ne vom multumi intotdeauna cu cei pe care-i avem si nimic mai mult?

ce ti se poate intampla daca cumperi o spuma de par?

Chiar asa, ce ti se poate intampla daca cumperi o spuma de par in Romania? Pai, poate sa-ti cada parul (glumesc :)) sau poti castiga o excursie la Hollywood si de ce nu, poti sa te insori la Las Vegas!

Nu credeti? Ei bine i s-a intamplat prietenului meu Dorian. 

Pentru omul care nu credeam ca o sa se insoare vreodata, ei bine, efectul fluturelui si-a spus cuvantul.

felicitari Dragilor si casa de piatra!

horoscopul: fat tail approach for a long tail audience

Pana nu demult mi se parea ca anumite previziuni de la horoscop mi se potrivesc, pana cand treptat am observat un "patern" al previziunilor: toate previziunile ii vizeaza in general pe cei singuri (fara pereche), pe cei nevoiasi (dar care asteapta bani de nicaieri), pe cei sanatosi/ sau bolnavi dar care nu se gandesc decat in alta parte decat la sanatatea lor. Probabil ca nu sunt multi oameni in situatia in care sa sa se trezeasca dimineata si sa spuna Multumesc Doamne pentru inca o zi! dar chiar si asa, restrangerea sferei de previziune pentru un horoscop nu cred ca are in vedere decat un singur tel: asigurarea unei audiente cat mai largi si mai numeroase pe o cazuistica restransa la majoritatea nevoilor primare sau secundare identificabile la nivelul majoritatii.

De aceea probabil cand ni se intampla lucruri care nu au fost spuse la horoscop le punem pe seama black swan: "soarta".

Intrebarea: cat de departe poate merge o previziune astrologica astefl incat in ea sa aiba loc doar persoana careia ii este destinata astfel incat nimeni altcineva sa nu se regasesca? 

PS de raspunsul asta ma gandesc ca sta in picioare unicitatea noastra ca fiinte in multimea determinata a populatiei planetei.

Internet for boring people or for the bored ones?

In replica to a post of one of my friens that you can read here I have som questions:

Better do the talking while "walking" (along the room or together with the audience)! as the ancient Greeks were doing. so U will not need Internet access. :) and another point: why is it that TV or viral advertising is so nice to all of us while "advertising presentations of the sponsors of a conference" are most of the time boring? What do we want in fact?

why I don't want to be Nobel Awarded! :)

One day after the Nobel committee announced that Paul Krugman had won the 2008 Nobel Prize for economics, colleagues of Mr. Krugman voiced concerns that winning the coveted award could turn him into an egregious
douchebag.
At The New York Times, where Mr. Krugman is an op-ed page columnist, and at Princeton University, where he is a professor of economics, co-workers of the newly-minted Nobel laureate were reportedly bracing for the worst.
"I think it's safe to say that Paul had pretty high self-esteem before the Nobel thing went down," said one of Mr. Krugman's Princeton associates, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "But now he's walking around like he's Jay-Z or something." The first ominous sign, according to the associate, came at a meeting of the economics department this morning, when Mr. Krugman showed up with a coffee mug reading, "No. 1 Economist." While his colleagues discussed the current global financial crisis, Mr. Krugman "couldn't be bothered" and spent the meeting texting Matt Damon instead. At one point, one of his fellow economists asked him a question about credit default swaps, to which Mr. Krugman reportedly snapped, "Credit default swaps can suck my ass -- I'm Paul Fucking Krugman!"
Mr. Krugman could not be reached for comment and instead referred all questions to his publicist, Sherri Hefstein, whom he hired minutes after winning the Nobel.According to Ms. Hefstein, Mr. Krugman plans to spend the next few
months "building his brand" and will be adapting his book, International Economics: Theory and Policy, into a feature film to star George Clooney.

taken from borowitz report.

Logica normalitatii - un paradis pierdut?

O serie de filme incearca sa ne pregateasca pshihologic pentru momentul in care clonele de langa noi nu vor fi neaparat fiinte umane ci roboti cu infatisare umana. Oricat de futuriste ar parea aceste proiectii, interesant mi se pare felul in care de fiecare data acesti roboti (de regula masini de razboi - i.e. o fi vreun semn de vreme ce si internetul a aparut initial ca o forma de comunicare in cadrul armatei) descopera disimularea, emotia si irationalul deciziilor umane. Felul in care ulterior robotii dezvolta aceste atitudini ii transforma in figuri iubite pe micul sau marele ecran. Una dintre ele a devenit atat de iubita incat a devenit Guvernatorul Californiei.

Si totusi in efortul robotilor de a invata modul de reactie in cazul unei situatii care comporta emotii aduce intotdeauna in fata intrebarea : Dar de ce ai reactionat asa ? Nu e logic ?

Si acum sa ne transpunem fiecare dintre noi in absurdul cotidianului in care un imbecil iti taie calea in trafic in ultima clipa desi puteai sa intri in el. Intrebarea pe care ne-o punem cu vadita pasiune: de ce a facut asta? nu e logic ca puteam sa intru in el?

Si atunci nu pot sa nu ma intreb care este de fapt granita pana la care trebuie sau putem fi logici si care este limita pana la care putem sa ne acceptam emotiile si sa ne si bucuram de ele? De unde sa incepem sa ne speram ca am devenit roboti, si de unde pre-umanul emotiei ne muta in cu mult in urma in lantul trofic?

Si intrebarile nu se termina aici. Cum iei decizia in fapt in situatii la care ne place sa ne raportam ca persoane rationale si pline de logica, dar unde reactionam in fapt extrem de patimas si vadit sub influenta emotiilor?

financial innovation: where is it when you need it?

Speaking about innovation: now is the time, in the financial turmoil we face, to dig for innovative solutions. where are the brains paid to deliver but to think to take advantage on this turn? 

One said that is nothing wrong with the smartest solution: make money when everybody does or make money when everybody don't. While facing the "change of the rules" all over the financial industries - would it be wise to help everybody just not to lose money? So, how this can be done without nationalizations?

Chiar deloc nu ne mai doare?

Paradigmele fluxului de procese din spitalele romanesti

Un spital de urgenta in Romania anilor 2008: proceseaza o spitalizarea fara sa verifice daca exista paturi suficiente. Te trimite sa faci analize si sa astepti pe holuri, pentru ca scaune nu exista, in vederea identificarii faptului ca ai o problema urgenta. Deh, doar nu ai venit la urgenta pentru controale de rutina.

Ciclul este urmatorul:

• realitatea A: esti internat si stai pe hol sau pe marginea unui pat (alaturi de pacientul in curs de externare). 
  
• realitatea cruda AA: si daca dai bani nu gasesti locuri. (atentia distributiva costa, iar compasiunea se masoara unitatile monetare aferente "indulgentelor" de alta dat)
  
• realitatea si mai cruda AAA: si daca ai plati un serviciu privat iar nu gasesti locuri, trebuie sa te programezi. Daca nu stiai ca o sa ai o problema, te duci din nou la realitatea A.
  

Asa ca in Romania privata totul trebuie programat, iar in cea birocrata totul trebuie asteptat.

Iar in acest timp cu cinism ne traim optiunile de viata pe care nu le vrem pentru noi, dar pe care le tratam ca si cum nu ar fi ale noastre!

As prefera sa nu mai intreb, pentru ca asta ar insemna o revenire, dar nu te poti abtine sa nu te intrebi: chiar de deloc nu ne mai doare?

Policy is making the change

Very interesting and very good questions were raised during the energy conference in Atena by Prof. Arthouros ZERVOS, President EREC - European Renewable Energy Council:
Uneven growth among EU Member States which cannot be explained by distribution of natural resources!
 Why should Austria‘s solar capacity per capita be 30 times larger than Italy‘s?
 Why are 70 % of all geothermal heat pumps installed in 3 EU countries?
 Why has biomass heating taken off in Austria and the Nordic countries and other countries only follow slowly?
Indeed, why?
To point he makes there is just one conclusion left: because policy is making the change!

would it be enough to change the situation? the world?

pareto principle in the oil business

Interesting point made by Matija Zlamalik from JBC Energy on the control of global oil reserves: 77% of the total oil reserves belong to the national oil companies (therefore they belong to the state) and just 10% belong to the independent oil companies and 7% to the joint venture between national and independent.
Do you ask yourself to whom it belong the rest of 6%? well, an again interesting point made during the presentation: to the Russian oil companies.

one petabyte management solution

One petabyte management solution in the vision of Radu Furnica is common sense. This is also something that we miss more and more!

I can't stop asking myself what would be the key performance indicator for common sense?

energia in tara lui Zeus!

sunt la o conferinta in atena. mai multe despre ea puteti gasi aici. Revin cu impresii la inceputul saptamnii viitoare.

un altfel de alfabet!

"The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog" - aceasta propozitie foloseste fiecare litera a alfabetului odata si doar vocala e de doua ori. 

Bonusul de retentie - anacronismul pietei romanesti

In timp ce pe pietele americane citim despre stiri cu angajatii care primesc bonusuri de compensare pentru incetarea activitatii firmei, la noi, lucrurile sunt intotdeauna putin diferite. Sau doar putin intarziate?

Un articol, la care mi am adus contributia si eu, despre provocarile ridicate de retinerea fortei calificate in firma puteti citi in revista piata.

Pentru momentele in care crezi ca nu mai ai motive sa fi mandru ca esti roman!

UN excelent articol despre Cătălin Ţăranu care este campionul european en-titre la GO şi singurul jucător profesionist de rang 5 dan din Europa. Si e... român!

Puteti citi articolul in editia electronica a ziarului Adevarul aici.

MECE - angels of consultancy. the secular rank

MECE means for those who don't know: Mutually exclusive (for each other) and Collectively exhaustive (in terms of the hole). The concept is described by Barbara Minto in the Pyramid Principle and is it known to belong to one consulting company who developed the concept for explaining everithing one would need to know in terms of a functional structure and organiyational chart.

I would just ask it is not this the laic version of the apophatic and cataphatic theology version of knowing? I mean understanding God in a logical structure the the human mind would dare.

training philosophy

What I hear, I forget

What I see, I remeber

What I do, I understand.

cata diferenta intre asta si principiul scolii grecesti vechi de filosofie regasita la Noica: "In procesul de invatamant, nu se stie cine da si cine si cine primeste"

Si atunci as intreba: Cum se numeste ce stii ca stii inainte de a fi uitat dar si dupa ce ai uitat?

ce nu ati face pentru 50 de bani?

Am ramas surprins, sa vad zilele trecute la unul dintre magazinele de bricolaj ale capitalei, ce valoare are fisa de 50 de bani. Absolut toata lumea, care alminteri ar fi lasat carucioarele aiurea prin parcare, pentru simplu fapt ca au fost montate dizpozitive de legatura intre ele, care pot fi inlaturate pentru suma modica de 50 de bani, prefera sa aduca inapoi carucioarele la spatiul de depozitare. 

Asta in conditiile in care valoarea fisei de 50 de bani este extrem de relativa. Ce ai putea sa faci cu o astfel de fisa in Bucuresti? Nici macar la toaleta nu poti merge si mai nou nici macar o Eugenie nu iti mai poti cumpara. Eventual cateva pliculete de zahar sau restul rotunjit pentru vanzatoarea din colt sau o fisa pentru cantaretul de la metrou si cersetorul de la semafor.

Si totusi nici macar ciocoii noi  ai capitalei nu ar renunta la fisa de 50 de bani in favoarea unui "strange carucioare". 

Nu pot sa nu ma intreb, daca e atat de ieftin sa pastrezi ordinea in parcarea unui supermarket, ce ne lipseste pentru a pastra ordinea intr-un oras intreg sau in parcarile publice? Doar pretul corect?

the fourth quadrant - another perspective

There are just few days since the article of Nassim Taleb, THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS, was published on Edge.org. Plenty of replicas and reactions appeared all over the web. I just wonder if what he says has been perceived on the Europe banking environment as it is a true fact: you can’t predict, don’t fight (i.e. trade) with/against a number. 

I have learnt from the Romanian economy that numbers were always meant to be presented for official reports therefore it really didn’t matter how accurate they were. I would like to know how much would change this mentality the specific requirements based on Basel and SoX. Or what would be the next Basel? More restrictions and more supervisory regulations. 

One was saying once: what does a risk manager have to do for a living? And we are talking here about a very specific job, pretty well defined, that didn’t exist 20 years ago. Though we could say risks were always there no matter we were in Mediocristan or Extremistan. Nassim is making a point in saying “Alas, this category of blind users includes regulators and risk managers, whom I accuse of creating more risk than they reduce.” But as one CEO would say: more risk is more profit what should be than the working incentive for the risk manager? Should we worry about people that make a living out of numbers no one else would understand. If we don’t need them what would replace them?

On the other side I will not cover the red line of the article which I really enjoy but I will stick with my questions around some points I am not sure I fully agree.

He says “my new mission is to build methods to turn lack of information, lack of understanding, and lack of "knowledge" into decisions”. I am looking forward to see that. But common sense would tell me that this is just another extreme of what we face today. Or is it the new petabyte management era?

Is it going Nassim to change the way we look at risks?

As he emphasizes “I have nothing against economists: you should let them entertain each others with their theories and elegant mathematics, and help keep college students inside buildings. But beware: they can be plain wrong, yet frame things in a way to make you feel stupid arguing with them. So make sure you do not give any of them risk-management responsibilities.” 

So the final question: Economists, if we don’t need them what would replace them?

terapie antistres

For that moment in the day, when you fell you don't have questions anymore. You just need something to enjoy! Listen with your heart!

ziua recunostintei si statistica

Un excelent articol al lui Nassim in revista EDGE poate fi gasit aici. Am sa revin in zilele urmatoare cu intrebari.

Cum recunosti un roman pe strada in tarile germanice?

Dupa numarul de sacose de la C&A!

si... lista poate continua :)

Superstitie si noroc!

Care este legatura dintre superstitie si noroc am intrebat-o azi la cursul de germana pe una dintre colegele mele din America. Desi nu a putut sa-mi raspunda exact care este motivatia care sta la baza raspunsului dat de ea, ea precizat ca ea nu este o persoana superstitioasa deoarece se simte norocoasa. Soarta, dupa cum a precizat mai tarziu chiar ea. 

Si totusi nu pot sa nu ma intreb care este legatura dintre noroc si superstitie. Suntem superstitiosi pentru ca nu avem noroc? sau pentru ca vrem sa fim norocosi? Care ar fi atunci deviation to the mean in cazul unei superstitii aplicate la o decizie de tranzactionare?

About motivating people...

Poate ca examenul final al unui CEO in momentul de fata ar trebui sa fie acela al unui echilibru in toate cele. Oricat de ciudat ar parea dar nu pot sa ma abtin sa nu ma intreb cum poti oare atinge perfectiunea intr-un mecanism economic oricare ar fi el, atat timp cat in propriul sau interior liderul organizatiei, «de facto» nu si a gasit linistea si de ce nu, un anume soi de armonie care sa-i permita intelegerea celor din jurul sau. Pana nu demult, comunistii aveau o teorie conform careia nu poate fi persona cu responasibilitati in conducere cineva care nu are stagiul militar satisfacut. Oricat de stupid ar fi acest demers initiatic, raportat la o societate complet desacralizata, dar deloc lipsita de mituri, cum a fost cea comunista, they got the point cum se zice. Poate ca standardele s-au schimbat, dar natura umana este aceeasi si nevoile ei s-au diversificat.

Cum poti prin urmare motiva oamenii daca nu le poti intelege nevoile si mai ales cum le poti intelege daca nu le ai?

Oare unde incepe toleranta si sfarseste leadershipul?

typical learning environment: shut up and listen!

I am reading Charles Handy "Understanding Organizations" and I got amazed by two things so far: the English language for business he uses (I must say that even for a non native like myself it sounds... nicer) and one of his approach to learning. In his view the learning process has 4 phases: Questioning, Conceptualization, Experimentation, and Consolidation. Based on my learning experience so far I figure out that nobody really enjoy questioning: either the teacher or the students. You just feel strange with your questions daring to challenge the conventional wisdom of "It is said that it's like this and that..."
So I admit I am in this first stage for some years now. And You know what? I like it! because what I found out in my daily experience: most of us don't like abstract ideas but learning experiences and conclusions coming from praxis and not from theory.

Don't you think on the other hand that this is the reason we lose now easier our beliefes ? facts are everything but aren't they just ideas about what we see and understand?

How many mobiles do you have?

“When you are employed, hence dependent on other people’s judgment, looking busy can help you claim responsibility for the results in a random environment.” (Black Swan The impact of highly improbable)

Vi se pare cunosocuta imaginea? In aeroporturi si in anumite birouri si inatalniri ? Sa fie doar complexul (de supravietuire) angajatului care poarta in mana o hartie oriunde si oricand merge printr-o institutie ? Sau e doar dorinta ascunsa a tututoror de a parea mai importanti decat suntem? Cate telefoane mobile aveti?

my trend is his friend...

Singurul lucru cert despre orice trend este ca la un moment dat va fi reversibil, (i.e. this is why I love black swans). Si cu toate astea o stiinta intreaga se invarte in jurul lui a prognoza care va fi trendul maine. Am descoperind pornind la drum cu intrebari despre tot si toate, din orizontul de preocupari pe care le am acum, ca exista prieteni care cultiva spiritul trendului si incearca sa explice viitorul prin paternurile trecutului. Un astfel de blog il puteti gasi aici.

Nu pot sa nu ma intreb insa ce s-ar intampla daca toata lumea ar cumpara out-of-the money?!

Ein Man ein Wurst!

No post yesterday. I am Bavaria and yesterday I did the supreme blasphemy ordering just wine for a typical Bavarian food. As good as it is the wine without so much of marketing as the local beer receives I wonder if shall I come back for Oktoberfest to really give a chance for the Wheat beer?

Where is the logic fallacy? One’s quest for the logic of GO…

Whomever played Go at least once knew the beginning. Masters from 7 Dan would tell you about the end. Those two perspectives are coming along well as the logic would bring the student at the same table with the master. I never realized that playing Go you can look at the same problem from two perspectives until I run into the writing of Solomon Marcus (Paradigme Universale III Jocul - Editura Paralela 45)! E.g. solving it trough induction as a beginner without experience and making a lot of inferences about the next move to do (i.e. getting lost in the details of local tactics)  or better as a master having the move as a necessary step to accomplish the strategy of the game he knew from the beginning. 

What makes the difference between the master and the neophyte in business strategy? Should that be just experience? Or is it abduction principle to thank for?

2009 - End of the risk management theory as we know it and beginning of the Black Swan era?

The real value of the services without any obvious value added to a process (e.g. administrative for most of the business and in this particular case risk management for most of the institutions involved in financial business) can be perceived just when delivery fails. This is the case now with the financial industry and one of its services: risk management.

Nothing could be more convincing for the public opinion that RISK MANAGEMENT is a NEED than this financial turmoil we are facing now. Regardless of how much the risk minds would conference about it and how challenging risk managers can be for the ´growth of their organizations the theory and the contemporary practice is by far outdated. As Nassim Taleb challenged the financial community with its Black Swan theory, nothing will be the same, and nothing could be taken for granted anymore. So, where to place the bet, if investment theory lacks of forecast certitudes?

The time has come to move onto a new era. I just got to know that Nassim is working on paper to answer to my question: After Black Swan what? Shall we count along the risk milestones of the Harvard Business Review, this month issue, another one with Black Swan era?

Risk Management Milestones according to HBR September: 

"1952: Mean variance (aka modern portfolio theory) - Harry Markowitz

Late 1950s, early 1960s: State preference theory - Kenneth Arrow, Gérard Debreu

1958: “Indifference theory” - Franco Modigliani, Merton Miller

1960s: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) - William Sharpe et al.

1973: Options-pricing model - Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, Robert C. Merton

1976: Arbitrage pricing theory - Stephen Ross

1977: Underinvestment problem - Stewart Myers, Clifford Smith, René M. Stulz

1979: Binomial option pricing model - John Cox, Stephen Ross, Mark Rubinstein

1993: A framework for risk management including hedging - Kenneth Froot, David Scharfstein, Jeremy Stein"

Don’t mess with mathematicians!

Oren Etzioni got mad once when he paid the most expensive ticket among all the customers of one flight. The inspiration coming out of this madness lead him to invent a system based on an algorithm to calculate when is the moment to buy the cheapest flight. See more about on the web site reshaped by Microsoft.

I just wonder where are all the mathematicians from Bucharest to help us out to calculate when is the best time to leave from home by car to avoid traffic jams. 

Aren't we all nuts?

"Adaptarea normala omului obisnuit, cu bun simt, bine adaptat presupune o respingere continua, incununata de succes, a unei parti din continuturile profunde ale naturii umane, depotriva volitive si cognitive. Buna adaptare la lumea reala inseamna fracturarea persoanei." A. Maslow about Creativity in 1958, speech held at the East Lansing, Michigan.  Sorry for not having the original version, the basic idea is that the process of adjusting to the real world can break apart our being.

Strange thing how the history of mankind preserve into the future labels and biases about previous thinkers. I would have believed for all my life that Maslow is just the one who invented “the carrot” of modern civilization and HR departments.

So I would ask the nut: who is the fool?

New sales controlling hot topic: How much are we allowed to ask for?

The question will not be anymore: How much a product will cost? but how much is allowed to cost?

Sound perfect rational nevertheless as Dan Ariel mentioned in one of his books Predictably Irrational the price is not set up by the economic law of Supply and Demand. The price is set up by the anchors. Anchor is something that the buyer uses as references in comparison to the new offer.

E.g. I am offering you a flat on the Moon for 1million €. Suppose that you might have an interest to go there once in a while or you just take this as an investment. The buying process will start immediately after the following offers for sales are going to be higher than this one. Marketing strategist for consumer goods and FMCG know that very well.

So, I would ask just this: How much could be allowed for the price of the crude oil? 

My question is my life!

Around so many of my certainties I got always the feedback: how can you be so sure about everything? I couldn’t answer but: [I believe it’s so. I feel it]. And you might not believe me, but most of the time I was right. 

Tough, getting the same question every day I said to myself that one could start to wonder as a kid, by  thinking through the eyes of an adult. 

Let’s see what the marvelous question can do!

small is the new big... mirror?

Some of the Seth Godin’s new Myths out of the "Small is the new big" on which I have some doubts. 

 “Customers have more power than ever before

Treating them like they don’t matter doesn’t work.”

Except if you live into a growing economy of one emerging market with the lack of competition!

Could it be the rule: we don’t care because nobody else cares either?

 “Multiple channels of information mean that

is almost impossible to live a lie.

Authentic stories spread and last.”

 

Except if you don’t know how many channels need to trust one. 

Could it be that the time to check the true will bring the petabyte decision making system closer to our habits than ever?

 

 “The ability to change fast

is the single best asset

in a world that’s changing fast”

Except that creation ended up into the 8th day of our Creation. Is there anything new indeed around?

 

"Blogs matter. If you want to grow you’ll need to touch the information hungry, idea sharing people who read (and write) them."

 Except that there are so many of them and just few are counting. 

Are they so important for our generation (civilization)?

 

"There are no side effects. Just  effects.

Indulge short attention spans."

Except that is not because cause of you. 

Could it be the last karmic chain to be broken this way?

 

Aretha was right. Respect is the secret to success in dealing with people.

Except Aretha is not Seth.

  

Do something that matters.

Agree!

Petabyte era - who's going to decide?

An interesting debate started from the article of Chris Anderson regarding the Petabyte Age and the end of the science done as it used to be done before. Since 1975, the suffix “peta” means the length of 1 billiard (1 000 000 000 000 000), so what we are facing now is the overwhelming world of  information. There is plenty of data that are just waiting to be categorized and analyzed. Experiments to gather data in order to prove the evidence of one theory are obsolescent. The future seems to be for the pigeons clusters as Google machine sort it out. 

My personal believe is that the first impact of such theory would come in place first to the management concepts. Try to imagine a world-wide organization gathering into the internal systems information and data from all over and try to imagine how a manager could cope with all the unnecessary information. How this new world of petabytes of information will change the way the economical decisions are going to be taken from now on? Is it going to be a human approach or super extra faster computers?